As Tottenham’s Premier League form collapses, history suggests they’ll still somehow topple the title-chasing champions this weekend.
You know the feeling. It’s that peculiar, familiar certainty that, against all logic and recent evidence, Tottenham Hotspur will beat Manchester City this weekend.
The paradox is stronger than ever. The less sense a Spurs victory makes, the more likely it seems to happen. And right now, a Tottenham win makes no sense at all.
Emerging from a gentle January schedule designed to reignite their campaign, Spurs instead find themselves glancing nervously at the relegation scrap. They are winless in five Premier League games, having suffered back-to-back defeats to teams mired in long winless runs. Domestically, they are a team that, as a point of principle, concedes at least two preventable goals every time they play.
Yet, in the Champions League, they are a clinical force, winning four of their last six European matches—twice as many victories as they’ve managed in the league during that time. It’s a bewildering Jekyll and Hyde act that defines modern Spurs.
And for years, Manchester City have been their favourite, bewildered accomplices in this drama. While perfecting their new act of European competence and domestic chaos, Spurs have never abandoned the classic bit: pulling off an improbable win against Pep Guardiola. They’ve won their last two visits to the Etihad Stadium and knocked City out of the Carabao Cup last season.
This latest instalment comes with extra intrigue. While the match is at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium—where only Burnley and Brentford have failed to take points this season—it arrives with City freshly re-energised in the title race and Spurs desperately short on confidence.
The statistics are startling. Since 2018, Spurs have actually taken more points from their games against Manchester City (23) than they have from matches against Wolverhampton Wanderers (18). They hold a 7-6 winning record against the most relentless points machine the Premier League has known over a period encompassing some of Spurs’ most turbulent years.
No one can explain why it keeps happening. We can only assume it will continue for as long as Spurs remain so resolutely, utterly Spurs.
Elsewhere This Weekend:
Liverpool, also using European nights to mask league frustrations, face a tricky task translating Champions League momentum against a fatigued Newcastle. Aston Villa’s title ambitions face an immediate test as a hamstring injury to Ollie Watkins could thrust new signing Tammy Abraham straight into the fire. For Manchester United, the real measure of progress under Michael Carrick may not come from epic wins over rivals, but from a consistent result against a mid-table Fulham.
Across the channel, European champions Paris Saint-Germain face a slippery Ligue 1 test at Gary O’Neil’s Strasbourg, a match that could prove more challenging than their midweek European exertions suggest.
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